When the Sharks Start Circling

In the blink of an eye, we went from the tennis tour off season to being past 1 grand slam and in full spring swing! One of the biggest stories so far post Aussie Open has been the return of Rafa Nadal. He came back at a couple low level clay tournaments in Chile and Brazil and is currently through to the semis in Acapulco. Based on what I've seen, if I were any of the other sharks in the top 5, I'd smell blood on the clay for sure. Here's why:

1. Movement- Rafa has yet to show the same level of movement he typically has. He has looked a bit lethargic and has had a tendency to let many shots go that, in years past, he would have run down and smacked winners off of. He has even publicly acknowledged that he feels he lacks power and explosiveness in his legs.

2. Power- Just doesn't look to be hitting with the same power yet. Lots of shots landing short in the court. You might be able to get away with it at Masters 250 tournaments but Djokovic , Murray and Fed will eat those shots up and order seconds. Rafa's clay game is predicated on using his forehand to hit deep in the court and get the ball up high in order to setup winning shots. If he is unable to consistently do this, that does not bode well. He already struggles to keep his backhand deep consistently so if he is now struggling to do so on the forehand side, his weapons become limited even more.

3. Mental- You might as well spin a wheel each day if you are trying to get a read on his mental state. It is a constant stream of comments about how he is happy to play and improve, coupled with statements about how his knee still hurts and how he doesn't know day to day if he'll be up to the task. His camp has always been secretive and shifty with their comments to the point of fueling conspiracy theories. If you have been living under a tennis rock, the rampant theory is that Nadal has not been injured and has been serving a "silent ban" for doping the last few months. His last minute withdraws and vague statements this spring have done nothing to dissuade the proponents of the theory either.

4. Diminished Aura- He is just not coming off as the "King of Clay" right now. He lost in Chile to a journeyman and has dropped sets to several others. Opponents just don't look scared of him right now. Of course I'm sure he still mentally owns the rest of the Spanish Armada. If he can dismantle Almagro and Ferrer over the weekend, he might get a bit of swagger back.

I'll be surprised if Nadal plays Indian Wells and Miami. He was non-committal earlier this week and I would assume he'd prefer to stay on clay. It saddens me to think he may transition to only playing around 4 hard court tournaments a year. I could see him playing Aussie and the US Open with a warmup tourney before each. As of right now, he seems to be focused on getting ready for the French. Hopefully he knows those other guys are circling, ready to snatch Roland Garros. It's shaping up to be an intriguing spring!